The consensus story for 2026 is deceptively simple: inflation cooling, growth slowing but positive, central banks cutting, equity markets near record highs, and artificial intelligence still driving the narrative.
That picture is not wrong. It is simply incomplete.
At Tagpeak, we have to inhabit a more demanding reality. Our business model depends on running a concentrated, high-conviction, often leveraged portfolio of companies we believe can deliver exceptional returns over time. We deploy our own capital, shoulder the risk, and do the hard work of security selection and macro analysis.
Consumers who use Tagpeak never invest a cent with us. Instead, by shopping with partner brands, they gain access to a new type of cashback: rewards that start at a base level and have the potential to grow over time, powered by our investment performance and the broader evolution of equity markets. No decisions to make, no capital at risk, no effort required.
Because we run the risk on our side, it is essential we are honest about where the system is fragile. Going into 2026, we see ten key risks – five obvious, five less discussed – that could shape market outcomes and, by extension, the opportunity set we are trying to exploit.
Five obvious risks everyone is talking about
1. Valuations that assume very little can go wrong
U.S. equities enter 2026 at historically rich valuations, with narrow leadership and an equity risk premium that has in places almost disappeared. When the reward for holding equities over safer assets is that thin, any disappointment in earnings, margins or policy can trigger an outsized reaction.
For Tagpeak, this does not mean retreating from equities; it means being extremely selective about where we accept valuation risk and insisting that any position we take has a clear, credible path to compounding.
2. AI as both growth engine and single point of failure
Artificial intelligence has become the organising principle of this market cycle. Capital expenditure plans, earnings revisions and index performance are increasingly tied to a small number of AI beneficiaries.
It is plausible that AI continues to generate real productivity gains, but it is equally plausible that expectations become over-extended in the near term. A handful of disappointments could weaken entire indices. Our response is to distinguish, company by company, between businesses merely associated with AI and businesses genuinely positioned to monetise it over a decade, not a quarter.
3. Growth that is positive, but feels anaemic
Headline forecasts for global GDP in 2026 are not alarming. They show a world that is expanding, albeit slowly. Underneath, however, many households in advanced economies remain squeezed by elevated prices, high mortgage costs and persistent uncertainty.
For corporates, that combination can mean slower revenue growth than current equity optimism implies. At Tagpeak, we look for companies that can grow in real terms despite this backdrop – firms with pricing power, structural tailwinds or genuine innovation, rather than those simply riding the cycle.
4. Central banks in danger of mis-timing the turn
The major central banks have a narrow path to follow: ease policy enough to support growth, but not so aggressively that they reignite inflation. Markets, meanwhile, have developed a habit of extrapolating every hint from policymakers into a complete story.
We assume that monetary policy will oscillate, not glide. Rate paths can easily diverge from market narratives, and that matters for how discount rates, funding costs and risk premia behave. Our portfolio construction has to be robust to several plausible policy paths, not just the most benign.
5. Geopolitics and tariffs as a permanent headwind
Tariffs, industrial policies, export controls and supply-chain remapping are now structural features of the environment. They embed friction into trade flows, complicate corporate planning and add noise to earnings forecasts.
This is not a world in which everything de-globalises at once, but it is one in which companies with resilient supply chains, diversified revenue bases and strategic assets may be better placed than those reliant on a single route or regime. That distinction sits at the heart of many of our bottom-up decisions.
Five hidden risks that do not make the headlines – but should
The more interesting risks are rarely the ones dominating morning television. They sit in the plumbing of credit markets, balance sheets and financial technology – and they matter greatly for anyone running a concentrated, leveraged portfolio.
1. The commercial real estate maturity wall
Across 2026 and 2027, a large volume of commercial property loans will need to be refinanced at interest rates significantly higher than those prevailing when the loans were originated. Office valuations have already fallen; vacancy rates remain challenging in many cities.
This is unlikely to produce a single dramatic failure. It is more likely to act as a slow-moving constraint on credit growth, particularly among smaller banks and specialist lenders. We track these dynamics closely when assessing financials and credit-sensitive equities.
2. The corporate refinancing cliff
Beyond real estate, a considerable stock of high-yield and private credit is also due to be rolled over in the next few years. Weaker issuers face a simple arithmetic problem: either accept much higher financing costs, dilute existing shareholders, or restructure.
This kind of credit cycle does not necessarily break markets, but it can generate pockets of stress and forced selling. For a concentrated investor, that can be both a risk and an opportunity. Our task is to distinguish between businesses that are merely cyclically pressured and those whose capital structure is fundamentally unsustainable.
3. Equity risk premia near historic lows
When equities offer very little extra compensation over government bonds, the system’s tolerance for surprise falls sharply. The cushion that allowed markets to absorb bad news in previous cycles has narrowed.
In that world, security selection matters far more than index exposure. We cannot rely on “the market” to muddle through; we have to be convinced that each position in our portfolio earns its place under a range of macro outcomes.
4. AI embedded in the financial system itself
The AI story is not only about the companies that build or deploy models. It is also about the way those models are now interwoven into risk systems, trading algorithms, credit scoring and market-making.
If many models are trained on similar data and behave in similar ways, there is a risk of correlated error: market moves that are amplified by the very systems meant to manage risk. That is unlikely to be existential, but it increases the probability of sudden liquidity gaps and sharp, temporary dislocations.
For an investor like Tagpeak, such episodes can be hazardous or highly attractive, depending on preparation. We assume they will occur.
5. Fiscal fatigue and the politics of restraint
Public debt levels have risen substantially across much of the developed world. At some point, electoral cycles and market pressure tend to produce an adjustment; that adjustment can take the form of higher taxes, spending restraint, or both.
Fiscal consolidation does not always arrive with fanfare. It often appears gradually, through budgets that are simply less generous than before. For companies, this can translate into weaker demand or less supportive policy environments. Our analysis therefore pays close attention to which business models are most exposed to changing fiscal winds.
What this means for Tagpeak – and for the rewards we can deliver
Tagpeak’s job is not to predict exactly which of these risks will crystallise in 2026, nor when. Our job is to construct and manage a portfolio that can withstand surprises and still seek out attractive opportunities in any regime.
We do that by concentrating capital in ideas where we have high conviction, by embracing the fact that we are exposed and therefore must be rigorous, and by accepting that leverage magnifies both our potential and our responsibility.
Consumers who use Tagpeak never participate in that risk directly. They do not invest with us. Instead, they benefit indirectly from our work: by shopping with partner brands, they access cashback that starts at a base level and carries the potential to increase over time as our portfolio and global markets evolve. Their rewards can grow; their own money is never at risk.
That is the core of the Tagpeak proposition: we do the hard, technical, sometimes uncomfortable work of navigating a complex macro landscape with a concentrated, high-effort approach to investing. Shoppers simply see the result in the form of cash rewards that can grow with the markets – at no extra cost, with no decisions required, and without bearing the downside of our portfolio.
If 2026 turns out to be orderly, our task is to capture as much of the opportunity as we can. If it proves more volatile, our task is to stay standing, stay selective and keep compounding. In both cases, the discipline we apply to managing these ten risks is what underpins Tagpeak’s ability to keep delivering a new kind of cashback: one linked to the upside of markets, but never to their losses.